These guys at the National Weather Service, or more specifically, the National Hurricane Center, are truly amazing. I was sitting around here this evening checking the progress of Noel, the latest storm down in the Atlantic, and I compared the current 11:00 PM plot against the plot done last Saturday (three days earlier.)
Take a gander at Point A on each of these charts:
Not to be insensitive because I realize if you were in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, or Cuba, things have turned out quite differently and even been deadly, but look how close they were with the track three days out.
It was supposed to be where it is now during the middle of the day on Tuesday, but that was because the actual storm track moved north of the models' projections and then deviated back to the south southwest during the day on Monday and Tuesday.
Next notice the 8 PM Thursday point on the Saturday projection matches the mid-day projection for Thursday on tonight's projection.
As far as South Florida is concerned, so far they've nailed it and they also correctly projected that it would not make it up to Hurricane strength.
Twenty years ago this kind of forecasting would have been impossible, and Global Warming aside I think that everyone here in the southeast can close the book on the 2007 Hurricane season.
Thank GOD...
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1 comment:
Yeah, thank God we made it through another season but some rain would have been nice.
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