Wilma Develops An Attitude

Fred, come get your wife...

At about 2:30 AM this morning I sitting here minding my own business when I opened an E-mail from the National Weather Service that said this:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

I had to sit up and take notice because a lot has to happen before we know where Madam Wilma is actually going. Here is the latest map showing the 5:00 AM forecast track:


Wilma's pissed off...


At first glance you’d probably say that we can breathe a sigh of relief here on the Georgia coast, and that I can stop worrying about my mother sitting on her farm in South Alabama.

You’d be wrong if you did.

See, in my opinion we’ve all gotten complacent about the weather service’s ability to forecast the track and intensity of these storms. It’s not like we’re talking about a Delta Airlines flight schedule here people. You can’t expect an arrival in a specific city on an exact time and date. (Actually, on second thought Delta might be less reliable example—sorry.)

Really, we take this stuff for granted these days. Several things have to happen yet and until they do the people in Cuba and Mexico need to be paying close attention over the next couple of days and EVERYONE from Galveston, Texas to Key, West Florida had better be warming up their tarps and generators because Wilma could actually end up almost anywhere next Sunday.

Yes, there is a great possibility that the jet stream will grab Wilma as she enters the Gulf of Mexico and send her spinning off to the east across the Florida peninsula.

Exactly where she crosses Florida is still a matter of wild speculation, and until she makes the predicted turn it's anyone's guess.

Now where did I put my plywood and nails???