Things Are Warming Up A Little

Don't Worry...I'm Watching Out For Everyone...


I just got this in an E-mail for NOAA National Weather Service in the past hour this morning, and I thought that I would share it with eveybody so that they would officially know what a useless nerd I am:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006

500 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND A 0331 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS AROUND THE CENTER.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA.

THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.

THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...MAINTAINING THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND5...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC. THE TRACK DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE UMKET MODEL DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND IN TURN TRACKS IT MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL SHAVE A STRONGER CYCLONE WHICH FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND TURNS NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS UNREASONABLE BECAUSE IT RESULTS FROM AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITHTHE GFS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

DEBBY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLERSSTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOW IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER WARMER SSTS...BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TOSTRENGTHEN WHICH MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY PREDICTION.

THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS DEBBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 4 DAYS...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT IS LEVELED OFF IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL

23/0900Z 15.9N 30.1W 40 KT 12HR VT
23/1800Z 16.9N 32.2W 45 KT 24HR VT
24/0600Z 18.2N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT
24/1800Z 19.6N 37.9W 50 KT 48HR VT
25/0600Z 21.0N 40.8W 50 KT 72HR VT
26/0600Z 24.0N 46.5W 60 KT 96HR VT
27/0600Z 27.5N 51.0W 65 KT120HR VT
28/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 65 KT

FORECASTER BROWN


I sure feel better knowing all of that, don't YOU?