Sunday, August 17, 2008

Hurricane Predictions "Fay"ding Away

So Go Buy Some Milk, Bread, And Batteries...

As you may recall, I, as a long time self proclaimed "Hurricane Expert," spend a good deal of time watching weather reports and looking at on line computer models of the atmosphere.

Call it a it an infection affection, but as I have said many before, knowing what I know today and seeing Jim Cantori's shiny head being paid zillions of dollars by the Weather Channel to stand around in a rain coat telling you to run away or take cover, I sometimes wish I could go back to 1977 and major in Meteorology rather than Injuneering.

Problem was, in those days (the '70's) all you thought of when you thought about weather was the local TV dude on WTVY in Dothan or the weather "bimbo" on the national morning TV shows that waived their hands over a map and reported that today it might rain somewhere and snow somewhere and the rest of us were going to dry up or burn up and blow away courtesy of the Santa Ana or Chinook winds.

Maybe I should call my self a "weather critic" rather than a weather expert. Sort of like a "Wine Critic" or even more accurately, a Movie Critic."

In support of that assertion, I can definitely tell you that a nice bottle of "Mad Dog 20/20" wine has a hard time comparing to a bottle of Fonseca 1977 Vintage Port Wine (which I am currently lovingly harboring in my personal cellar right now) or a 1994 bottle of Stags Leap Cabernet Sauvignon, and I'm also pretty sure that you're wasting your time and money going to see the latest productions by Weird Al Yankovitch or Michael Moore.

Back to my original topics of Hurricanes...I guess what I really do is not predict Tropical Weather.

What I do predict and tell you loudly is about our inability to EXACTLY predict within a WEEK what will happen in the coastal weather department.

Heck, the local weather men can't even tell me for sure if it's going to rain here on the banks of the Mighty Tennessee River at noon today.

So when the so-called real "Hurricane Experts" puff up their chests and proclaim an above average hurricane season I have to ask this question...


What do you want us to do?

Run Away screaming?

Pee in our Pants?

Move to California and subject ourselves to wild fires and earthquakes?

Move to Iowa and die of boredom?


And think about this for a minute.

Since 2005 when Katrina hit, the following Hurricane seasons (including 2008 to date) have been below average, although every single year the "experts" have predicted an above average season.

That's right, it's not in their best interest financially or ego wise to predict that the waters of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will be calm.

It doesn't make news, and it doesn't increase government and private funding for "weather" or "hurricane" research. If something ceases to be a real problem (or an imagined problem like man made global warming) the money goes away along with the news reporters.

So any we have our first real threat of the 2008 season in mid-August and I ask you to sit back and enjoy the upcoming hysteria. I don't want a single roof blow off or anyone to spend a single minute without power/TV/Internet service not to mention being injured or killed, but at the same time ...


We know...we know...WE KNOW ALREADY...

Evacuate if we're in the path of the coming storm, else buy 15 loaves of bread, 9 bags of ice, and tons of batteries if we're nearby, and then get on with being bored out of our minds by the upcoming presidential election coverage.

(BTW they just revised the storm path and forecast for FAY and now they're saying that it won't make hurricane strength as it comes ashore somewhere around Port Charlotte or Tampa.)

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